文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：罕见灾难冲击与财政政策效应研究——基于中国经济的实证检验

英文题名：A Study of Rarely-Seen Disaster Impact and Fiscal Policy Effect:An Empirical Test Based on China's Economy

作者：晁江锋[1];赵向琴[1];武晓利[2];陈国进[3]

第一作者：晁江锋

机构：[1]厦门大学经济学院;[2]河南财经政法大学经济学院;[3]厦门大学王亚南经济研究院

第一机构：厦门大学经济学院,福建厦门361005

年份：2015

卷号：0

期号：1

起止页码：31-42

中文期刊名：当代财经

外文期刊名：Contemporary Finance & Economics

收录：CSTPCD;;国家哲学社会科学学术期刊数据库;北大核心:【北大核心2014】；CSSCI:【CSSCI2014_2016】；

基金：国家自然科学基金项目"我国股市投机性泡沫识别和投资者乘骑泡沫行为研究"(71071132);国家自然科学基金项目"罕见灾难风险与资产定价:理论拓展和基于我国股市实证研究"(71471154)

语种：中文

中文关键词：财政政策效应;罕见灾难冲击;政府支出;财政补贴;DSGE模型

外文关键词：fiscal policy effect; rarely-seen disaster impact; government spending; fiscal subsidy; DSGE model

摘要：构建包含灾难性预期和政府支出因素的DSGE模型,分析罕见灾难在中国宏观经济中的财政政策效应问题。研究发现,政府支出能够明显削弱罕见灾难对中国经济的影响程度,提升宏观经济对罕见灾难的抵御能力;政府财政补贴在两部门和三部门灾难经济体中表现出不同的特征,较高的财政补贴幅度(占比6%以上)能够有效抵御罕见灾难对两部门经济体的冲击,但并不能够有效缩短该经济体复苏的时间;而财政补贴在三部门灾难经济体中的作用须区别对待,较低比例的财政补贴(占比3%以下)由于对财政支出的挤出效应而加剧了该经济体的不稳定性,而较高比例的财政补贴能够抵消财政支出减少所带来的负面影响,使得该经济体保持较高的风险抵御能力。
By constructing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model containing disaster expectation and factors of government spending, this paper makes an analysis of the effect of rarely-seen disaster events on the fiscal policy in China＇s macro economy. The results show that the government spending can significantly weaken the impact of the rarely-seen disasters on China＇s economy and improve the ability of macro economy to withstand rarely-seen disasters. The government fiscal subsidies show different characteristics in the two-department and three-department disaster economic entities; the wider fiscal subsidy range （accounted for more than 6%） can effectively resist the rarely-seen disaster impact on the two-department economic entity, but can not effectively shorten the recovery time of the economic entity. On the other hand, the role of fiscal subsidies must be treated differently in the three-department disaster economic entities： a lower proportion of fiscal subsidies （accounted for less than 3%） will intensify the instability of the economic entity due to the crowding-out effect on the fiscal expenditure, while a higher proportion of financial subsidies can offset the negative impact of the reduced fiscal spending, thus the economic entity can maintain a higher ability to resist risks.