文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：全面二孩背景下中国省际人口迁移格局预测及城镇化效应

英文题名：Prediction of Spatial Pattern of Interprovincial Migration and Impacts on Urbanization Under the Perspective of Universal “Two-Child” Policy in China

作者：龙晓君[1,2,3];郑健松[4];李小建[2,3];朱纪广[2];刘严松[5];陈慕华[1]

第一作者：龙晓君

机构：[1]广东财经大学地理与旅游学院,广东广州510320;[2]河南财经政法大学城乡协调发展河南省协同创新中心,河南郑州450046;[3]河南大学黄河文明与可持续发展研究中心,河南开封475004;[4]广东财经大学统计与数学学院,广东广州510320;[5]成都理工大学地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室,四川成都610095

第一机构：广东财经大学地理与旅游学院,广东广州510320

年份：2018

卷号：38

期号：3

起止页码：368-375

中文期刊名：地理科学

外文期刊名：Scientia Geographica Sinica

收录：CSTPCD;;Scopus;北大核心:【北大核心2017】；CSSCI:【CSSCI2017_2018】；CSCD:【CSCD2017_2018】；

基金：国家自然科学基金项目(41471117);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(16JJD770021);河南省2015博士后科研基金项目(20150229);广东省哲学社科“十三五”规划2017年度学科共建项目(GD17XSH07);2017年度广东省普通高校特色创新类项目(人文社科);广东省大学生创新训练项目(201710592017)资助~~

语种：中文

中文关键词：年龄移算法;马尔可夫链;区域类型;城镇化

外文关键词：age shift algorithm; Markov chain; area type; urbanization

摘要：采用第六次中国人口普查数据,基于全面二孩实施背景,预测未来中国与省际城乡人口规模以及省际人口迁移规模;采用2010年人口数据和2020年预测人口数据,从对比视角分析了中国省际人口迁移格局变化及其对城镇化发展的影响。研究发现：（1）城乡全面放开二孩政策不会带来区域人口数量的剧烈反弹;（2）综合考虑省际人口迁移方向与强度,将中国31个省份划分为4种类型;（3）省际人口迁移促进了城镇化率的提高及省际差异的缩小,对2010~2020年中国城镇化率的增加的贡献占到了30.77%。
From the policy allowing couples to bear a second child if one parent is an only child to universal ＂Two-Child＂ policy, fertility policy in China had changed in succession, which had caused extensive social concerns and would have an influence on Chinese demographics in the future. Based on the implementation of universal ＂Two-child ＂ Policy, using the data from China 2010 censuses, the article predicts the number of ur- ban and rural population by the age shift algorithm as well as the number of interprovincial population migra- tion with Markov chain in 2020. From the data in 2010 and 2020, the article analyzes the change of population migration pattern in China and its impact on urbanization development from the perspective of contrast. The re- suits are as follows： 1） The ＂Two-Child＂ policy would not bring a sharp rebound in population size in 2020. 2） According to the intensity and direction of migration, the area types of interprovincial migration can be di- vided into four modes： active areas have a larger migration and their immigration is much more than emigra- tion, which is mainly located in the eastern coastal provinces; active areas have a larger migration and their em- igration is much more than immigration, which is mainly located in the central and western China; active areas have a larger migration and their immigration is nearly equal to emigration; inactive area have a smaller migra- tion, such as some provinces with a large ethnic minorities population. 3） Interprovincial population migration has a positive effect on the development of urbanization rate. It accounted for 30.77% of the augmentation of urbanization rate and it also narrows the discrepancies of urbanization rate among provinces in China, during 2010-2020. The implementation of universal ＂Two-Child＂ policy is a major adjustment of fertility policy in re- cent years, which will impact on the urbanization and the spatial distribution of populationto a certain extent. Because the influence has hysteresis quality, the fertility policy has not an obvious performance when it started to implement. In order to reduce long-term side effect from policy change, it is necessary to forecast and re- search potential social impact from the new policy.