文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：入境旅游与进出口贸易关系的实证分析

英文题名：The Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between Inbound Tourism and Import & Export Trade

作者：王洁洁[1]

第一作者：王洁洁

机构：[1]河南财经政法大学旅游与会展学院

第一机构：河南财经政法大学旅游与会展学院

年份：2012

期号：11

起止页码：99-103

中文期刊名：经济问题

外文期刊名：On Economic Problems

收录：CSTPCD;;国家哲学社会科学学术期刊数据库;北大核心:【北大核心2011】；CSSCI:【CSSCI_E2012_2013】；

基金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41001077);国家社会科学基金资助项目(03BJY0088);教育部人文社科青年基金资助项目(10YJC630347);河南省政府决策研究招标课题(2012B046)

语种：中文

中文关键词：入境旅游;进出口贸易;协整分析;格兰杰因果关系

外文关键词：inbound tourism ; import ＆ export trade ; co -integration test; Granger causality test

摘要：改革开放以来,我国对外贸易和入境旅游获得了快速的发展,统计资料显示两者具有较强的相关性。选取中国与美国、日本、德国、澳大利亚四个旅游和贸易伙伴国,依据1985～2010年的相关统计数据,运用协整分析和格兰杰因果关系检验,对入境旅游与进出口贸易之间的关系进行了分析,结果发现:(1)美国、日本、德国和澳大利亚入境中国客流量,与中国和四国的进口贸易、出口贸易及进出口贸易存在着长期的稳定关系,说明贸易与旅游之间的确存在着协整关系;(2)格兰杰因果关系检验的结果表明,美国和德国的出口贸易、进出口贸易均促进入境中国旅游的发展,而日本和澳大利亚却是入境旅游推动进口、出口和进出口贸易,这说明了国际旅游与国际贸易之间的关系因国家及发展阶段不同而呈现出复杂性多样的情况;(3)从检验结果可知,我们应更加关注亚洲和澳洲市场,特别是应将中国周边国家作为入境旅游的核心市场进行营销,因为这不仅能促进入境旅游的发展,也能通过旅游的带动作用加快双边贸易额的增长,同时促进我国传统的对外贸易体系和结构向更合理、更稳定的方向迈进。
After China＇ s Open Policy Reform, international tourism and international trade of China all increase rapidly, and the strong relativity between this two are showed by statistic materials. Taking China＇ s four major tourist source countries and trade partners, U. S, Japan, Germany and Australia, as research objects, according to the relative data from 1985 to 2008, this paper analyzes the relationship between inbound tourism and import ＆ export trade using the co - integration test and Granger causality test, the results are as follows ： （ 1 ） Chinese inbound tourism from U. S, Japan, Germany and Australia and import ＆ export trade between China and these four countries exist the long term stable relation, which demonstrates the co -integration between tourism and trade. （2）The results of Granger causality test indicate U. S and Germanys＇ exports and import ＆ export trade promote the Chinese inbound tourism development, but for Japan and Australia, inbound tourism push import, export and import ＆ export trade, which also show the relationship between international tourism and international trade is complexity owing to the difference of state and develop stage. （3） According to the results of the test, we should take more attention on Asia and Australia market, especially take the surrounding countries as the core market to promote. That not only can boost the inbound tourism, but also improve the volume of bilateral trade, and push our traditional trade system and structure to be more reasonable and stable.