文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：How will the Chinese national carbon emissions trading scheme work? The assessment of regional potential gains

作者：Chen, Zhenling[1,2];Yuan, Xiao-Chen[3,4];Zhang, Xiaoling[5,6];Cao, Yunfei[3,4]

第一作者：陈宗林;Chen, Zhenling

通讯作者：Zhang, XL[1]

机构：[1]Beijing Technol & Business Univ, Sch Econ, Beijing 100048, Peoples R China;[2]Henan Univ Econ & Law, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Urban Rural Coordinated De, Zhengzhou 450046, Peoples R China;[3]Beijing Inst Technol, Sch Management & Econ, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China;[4]Beijing Inst Technol, Ctr Energy & Environm Policy Res, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China;[5]City Univ Hong Kong, Dept Publ Policy, Tat Chee Ave, Hong Kong, Peoples R China;[6]City Univ Hong Kong, Shenzhen Res Inst, Shenzhen, Peoples R China

第一机构：Beijing Technol & Business Univ, Sch Econ, Beijing 100048, Peoples R China

通讯机构：[1]corresponding author), City Univ Hong Kong, Dept Publ Policy, Tat Chee Ave, Hong Kong, Peoples R China.

年份：2020

卷号：137

外文期刊名：ENERGY POLICY

收录：;EI(收录号：20195007830986);Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-85076203154);WOS:【SSCI(收录号:WOS:000515439900053)，SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:000515439900053)】；

基金：This work was supported by grants from the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Pan-Third Pole Environment Study for a Green Silk Road (Pan-TPE) [grant number XDA20040400], the National Natural Science Foundation of China [71834005, 71704047, 71704011, 71303203], the Science Foundation of Ministry of Education of China [grant number 17YJC90015], the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation [grant number 2017M620821], the Research Grant Council of Hong Kong, China [grant numbers CityU 11271716, CityU 21209715], and the CityU Internal Funds [grant numbers 9680195, 9610386].

语种：英文

外文关键词：Potential gains; Emissions trading scheme (ETS); Data envelopment analysis (DEA); Carbon price

摘要：The implementation of a national emissions trading scheme (ETS) in China is likely to have an important effect on potential regional gains. This study proposes a unified analytical framework for anticipating such gains in 2020 and estimates the key factors involved using data envelopment analysis based models. The results indicate that: (1) when the value of the marginal abatement cost is higher than the carbon price, no regions will have an incentive to reduce emissions by technological improvements. The only source of direct potential gains is from the amounts of carbon quota. (2) As carbon price increases from CNY 10 to 4000 per ton, the indirect potential gains will increase because the strategies for carbon reduction are technological innovation or limit economic activities. However, Jiangsu and Shanghai will suffer potential losses even though the price is high because they have no more carbon reduction potential. (3) Most central provinces will have potential gains when the carbon price is lower in ETS, while regions rich in fossil energy sources will suffer potential losses. However, a middle-price interval of CNY 1000-2000/ton is more rational, because it helps motivate market transactions and benefits low-carbon technological innovations.