文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：信用规模变动冲击的部门间传导机制与结构关联特征——基于中国2006Q2—2019Q3的实证分析

英文题名：On the Inter-sectoral Transmission Mechanism and Structural Connection Characteristics of the Impact of Credit Scale Changes:An Empirical Study Based on China’s Credit Data from 2006Q2-2019Q3

作者：王昱崴[1,2];赵轲轲[3];赵紫剑[2]

第一作者：王昱崴

机构：[1]中国人民大学财政金融学院,北京100872;[2]河南财经政法大学金融学院,河南郑州450046;[3]中国人民银行郑州培训学院,河南郑州450011

第一机构：中国人民大学财政金融学院,北京100872

年份：2020

期号：8

起止页码：31-41

中文期刊名：征信

外文期刊名：Credit Reference

收录：北大核心:【北大核心2017】；

基金：国家社会科学基金后期资助项目(18FJL001);河南省软科学重点项目(20240041003)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：信用规模;传导机制;传导路径;传递效应;结构关联特征

外文关键词：credit scale;transmission mechanism;transmission path;transmission effect;structural connection characteristics

摘要：基于中国2006Q2—2019Q3共54个季度四部门信用规模数据,从四部门信用规模变动相互影响的角度,实证考察中国信用规模变动冲击部门间传导机制的三个理论假说。研究结果表明:四部门间信用规模变动冲击包括直接传导机制和多部门相互依赖共同起作用的间接传导机制,其传导路径与传递效应存在显著的异质性;政府部门信用规模变动对其他部门的冲击和受其他部门信用规模变动影响的综合效应最强,居民部门和非金融企业部门次之,金融部门相对较弱。因此,要厘清四部门信用规模变动的部门间传导机制与结构关联特征,并纳入统一的监管框架,从而建立过程性识别及防范机制;同时也要关注信用风险识别及防范的前瞻性和信用规模变动的结构化特征。
Based on the 54 quarters’ credit scale data of China’s four sectors from 2006Q2 to 2019Q3, this article empirically explores three theoretical hypotheses on the inter-sectoral transmission mechanism of the impact caused by credit scale changes from the viewpoint of the mutual influences of credit scale changes among the four sectors. Conclusions arrived at from the study are: the transmission mechanism of the impact among the four sectors includes direct transmission mechanism, and indirect transmission mechanism because of the interdependence among the four sectors and their collective force, with the two mechanisms being remarkably heterogeneous in transmission paths and effects;among the four sectors, the comprehensive effect of the impact of one sector’s credit scale change on other sectors and that of other sectors on itself in descending order are government sector, household sector, non-financial enterprises sector, and financial sector. Therefore, it is necessary to clarify the inter-sector transmission mechanism and the structural connection characteristics of the impact caused by credit scale changes among the four sectors and incorporate the mechanism and characteristics into a unified regulatory framework, so as to establish identification and precaution in process mechanism. In addition, attention should be paid to the foresight of credit risks identification and precaution, and the structural characteristics of credit scale changes.