文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：2009—2018年中国省级政府债务水平的动态演进

英文题名：The Dynamic Evolution of Provincial Government Debt Development Level in China from 2009 to 2018

作者：方磊[1];聂桂博[2];张雪薇[3];宋星辰[1];王一栋[1]

第一作者：方磊

机构：[1]河南财经政法大学金融学院,中国河南郑州450000;[2]河南财经政法大学资源与环境学院,中国河南郑州450000;[3]包头师范学院,中国内蒙古包头014030

第一机构：河南财经政法大学金融学院

年份：2021

期号：4

起止页码：23-29

中文期刊名：经济地理

外文期刊名：Economic Geography

收录：CSTPCD;;国家哲学社会科学学术期刊数据库;北大核心:【北大核心2020】；CSCD:【CSCD2021_2022】；CSSCI:【CSSCI2021_2022】；

基金：国家社会科学基金项目(18CJL030);河南省重点研发与推广专项(软科学研究)项目(212400410291);河南省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目(2020ZZJH042);河南省软科学重大项目(202400410031)

语种：中文

中文关键词：政府债务;隐性债务;马尔可夫链;风险防控;金融风险;投融资

外文关键词：government debt;implicit debt;Markov chain;risk prevention and control;financial risk;investment and financing

摘要：为探究中国省级政府债务水平的空间格局及动态演进,以2009—2018年中国各省份地方政府债务数据为样本,运用熵权法合成各省市风险指数面板数据,采用ESDA和马尔科夫链分析中国各省近10年来债务风险聚集情况以及演变趋势。结果表明,中国省际债务风险相关性表现为四个阶段:下降—上升—下降—稳定。东部地区城市呈现HH型集聚,西部地区城市呈现LL型集聚,且分布较为稳定。利用马尔科夫链分析债务风险的演变趋势,发现研究期内存在高风险、中高风险、低风险三个比较稳定的趋同俱乐部,提出控制地区间债务风险集聚、严格把控银行不良贷款、改进完善投融资平台的运作机制和缓释政府基金风险等建议。
In order to explore the spatial pattern of the development level of provincial government debt in China,this paper takes the local government debt data of each province in China from 2009 to 2018 as the sample and integrates the risk index panel data of each province by using the entropy method.It analyzes the concentration situation of debt risk and development trend of each province in recent 10 years applying ESDA and Markov chain.The empirical results show that the correlation of debt risk in China is divided into four stages at the provincial level:decline stage,rise stage,decline stage and stability stage.Cities in the eastern region show HH type agglomeration,while cities in the western region show LL type agglomeration,and the distribution is relatively stable.By using Markov chain to analyze the evolution trend of debt risk,it is found that there are three relatively stable convergence clubs during the study period:high-risk type,moderate-risk type and low-risk type respectively.It puts forward some suggestions:controlling the regional debt risk concentration,strictly controlling and managing the non-performing loans of bank,improving the operation mechanism of investment and financing platform,and slowly releasing government fund risk and so on.