文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：中国GDP的趋势循环分解及其政策含义

英文题名：The Trend-Cycle Decomposition of China's GDP and its Policy Implications

作者：叶光[1]

第一作者：叶光

机构：[1]河南财经政法大学经济学院

第一机构：河南财经政法大学经济学院

年份：2011

卷号：28

期号：11

起止页码：51-65

中文期刊名：数量经济技术经济研究

外文期刊名：The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics

收录：CSTPCD;;国家哲学社会科学学术期刊数据库;北大核心:【北大核心2008】；社科基金资助期刊;CSSCI:【CSSCI2010_2011】；

基金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目"非平衡时间序列分析中跨时加总和系统抽样问题研究"(11YJC790242)资助

语种：中文

中文关键词：UC模型;趋势成分产出缺口;B-N分解

外文关键词：Unobserved Component Model; Trend Components; Output Gap; Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition

摘要：本文对UC模型、B-N分解和HP滤波的关系进行研究,并结合中国GDP的数据特征设定UC模型结构,使用1992～2010年的季度数据对实际GDP的趋势成分和循环成分进行估计,实证结果表明2000年到金融危机爆发之前,随机冲击对中国经济长期趋势的正向推动不断加大,自然灾害对长期趋势的影响有限,两次金融危机的影响非常严重;经济波动的正负交替频繁且周期性特征不明显,波动幅度总体呈下降趋势,但2007年后有所加剧;产出缺口对通货膨胀的影响显著,但存在一定的滞后性。
Based on the statistic characteristics of China＇s GDP and the rela-tionship between UC model and ARMA model, the paper specifies the structure of UC model, and estimates the trend components and cycle components of China＇s real GDP using quarterly data from 1992 to 2010, then examines its policy implications. The results are as follows, after 2000, the positive effects of stochastic shocks to long-terms trend of China＇s economy increase gradually until the global financial crisis, and the effect of natural disaster on long-terms trend is trivial, but the effect of two financial crisis is very important; there is a high frequency switching of the positive and negative gap but no clear cycle in China＇s economy fluctuations, the fluctuation range is declining on the whole, but has been intensified since 2007; the influence of output-gap on inflation is significant, which has certain lag periods. In the future, China should reinforce the innovation supports and policy continuity to release the permanent effects of the economic circumstances change on domestic economy, and improve the export competitiveness to reduce the demand shocks from international markets.