文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：贸易条件对汇率增长效应影响的实证分析

英文题名：Impacts of Trade Terms on Growth Effects of Exchange Rate

作者：汪彩玲[1]

第一作者：汪彩玲

机构：[1]河南财经政法大学统计学院

第一机构：河南财经政法大学统计与大数据学院

年份：2016

卷号：32

期号：5

起止页码：80-84

中文期刊名：兰州财经大学学报

外文期刊名：Journal of Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics

收录：国家哲学社会科学学术期刊数据库

基金：河南省科技厅软科学项目(项目编号:152400410468)

语种：中文

中文关键词：汇率;增长效应;贸易条件;增长回归

外文关键词：exchange rate; growth effect; terms of trade; growth regression;

摘要：汇率对经济增长影响的方向一直备受争议,而贸易条件对一个国家汇率的增长效应有很大影响。本文首先从理论角度分析了贸易条件对汇率增长效应的影响方向,然后建立模型运用全球182个国家1984—2014年的面板数据,采用GMM方法对模型进行估计。实证研究发现,不管是中高收入国家还是中低收入国家,均表现为贸易条件的数值越大,贬值的增长效应越小;贸易条件的数值越小,贬值对增长的影响越大。中低收入国家贸易条件对二者的影响相对较大。对于正处在汇率调整期的我国,更应该充分考虑贸易条件对汇率增长效应的影响,谨慎合理地制定我国的汇率政策。
The direction of exchange rate effecting on economic growth is controversial. However,Trade terms has significant impact on the growth effects of exchange rate. This Paper first analyses the direction of exchange rate effecting on economic growth. Then estimates the model using panel data of 182 countries from 1984 to 2014. The results of this paper make clear that,no matter middle-high income countries and low-middle income countries,the more the proportion of the trade terms,the lower the devation of the exchange rate. The effects of trade balance in low-middle income countries are high relatively. For China,policy-makers should consider seriously the impacts of trade balance on growth effects of the exchange rate,and the more prudent when they consider changes in exchange rate.