文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：中美贸易失衡、次贷危机与人民币汇率——基于中间选民模型的政治经济分析

英文题名：Sino-US Trade Imbalance、Subprime Crisis and RMB Exchange Rate——A political and economic analysis based on the median voter model

作者：王怀民[1]

第一作者：王怀民

机构：[1]河南财经政法大学国际经济与贸易学院

第一机构：河南财经政法大学国际经济与贸易学院

年份：2012

期号：3

起止页码：95-99

中文期刊名：兰州商学院学报

外文期刊名：Journal of Lanzhou Commercial College

基金：国家社科基金项目(12BJL025):加工贸易;劳动力流动与城乡差距影响的机制研究

语种：中文

中文关键词：中间选民模型;中美贸易失衡;次贷危机;人民币汇率

外文关键词：median voter model;Sino-US trade imbalance;subprime crisis;RMB exchange rate

摘要：本文基于中间选民模型从政治经济角度分析了中美贸易失衡与人民币汇率问题。中间选民模型认为,贸易政策是由多数人投票决定的。如果中间选民拥有较低的资本劳动比率,资本丰裕国家的中间选民将会支持对进口的(劳动密集型)产品征收关税的贸易政策;这些国家不平等程度的上升将会导致更加严厉的贸易政策。分析表明,次贷危机的爆发,导致大量美国人失业,大部分人收入相对下降,贫富差距拉大,中间选民拥有的资本劳动比率降低,与原本存在的贸易逆差带来的失业问题叠加,导致其选择更加激进的保护贸易政策。选民的经济利益与政客的政治利益在这里找到了契合点,周期性选举造成美国贸易政策的周期性波动,大选来临时中美贸易失衡和人民币汇率往往成为焦点问题。
This paper,based on the median voter model,analyses the Sino-US trade imbalance and RMB exchange rate from the perspective of political and economic.The median voter model considers that the trade policy is determined by the majority vote.If the median voters have lower capital labor ratio,the median voters from capital abundant countries will support the trade policy on imposing tariffs to the imported(labor-intensive) products;the rise of inequality in these countries will lead to more stringent trade policy.Analysis shows that the outbreak of the subprime crisis,resulting in a large number of Americans are unemployed,the majority of people's income falls relatively,the gap between rich and poor is widening,the capital labor ratio that the median voters have reduces,which superimposes on the originally existed in the trade deficit of the problem of unemployment,causing them to choose more radical protection trade policy.The economic interests of voters and the political interests of politicians find a conjunction point here,and periodic election causes the cyclical fluctuation of the U.S.trade policy,therefore,when the election comes,the Sino-US trade imbalance and RMB exchange rate often becomes the focus question.